[/0226]

0/0029
[/0957]

0/0020
[/0964]

/03910
[/0822]

/02134
[/0988]

/02005
[/0989] (4-15)

0/2307 [0/631]

0/1478 [0/704]

0/1849
[0/892]

0/1177 [0/915]

1/499 [0/472]

0/5318 [0/466]

0/5078 [0/481] (4-16)

0/1083 [0/742]

0/7250 [0/790]

0/05794 [0/939]

0/03864 [0/951]

/06923
[/0707]

/11838
[/0277]

1534/1
[291/0] (4-17)

2/395 [0/122]

1/951 [0/173]

3/034 [0/081]

2/517 [0/123]

0/5836 [.747]

0/41561[0/519]

0/3980 [0/532]

مأخذ: نتایج تحقیق با بهره گرفتن از نرم­افزار Microfit 4.
یادداشت:
1- حداقل سطح معناداری در داخل [ ]آمده است.
با مشاهده­ نتایج تمام این الگوها در جدول (4-4)، مشخص می­ شود که مشکلی بابت خود همبستگی یا نرمال بودن جملات پسماند، شکل تابعی و ناهمسانی واریانس وجود نداشته است که حاکی از برقراری فروض چهارگانه کلاسیک­ها می­باشد.
از طرفی نکته­ی حائز اهمیت این است که پارامترهای تخمین­زده شده­ی سری­های زمانی، ممکن است در طول زمان تغییر کنند. در نتیجه، وجود پارامترهای بی­ثبات ممکن است که به عدم تشخیص صحیح منجر شوند، لذا انجام آزمون ثبات ساختاری[195] ضروری به نظر می­رسد؛ بنابراین از آزمون­های مجموع تجمعی جملات پسماند بازگشتی[196] (CUSUM) و مجموع تجمعی مربعات جملات پسماند بازگشتی[197] (CUSUMQ) استفاده می­کنیم. نتایج این دو آزمون ثبات ساختاری، برای الگوهای مختلف در نمودارهای (4-1) تا ( 4-16) نشان داده شده است.
 برای دانلود متن کامل پایان نامه به سایت zusa.ir مراجعه نمایید.

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 دسته‌بندی نشده
 

 0